Why childcare business success depends on understanding the residential property market

As housing developments continue to reshape towns and cities across the UK, demand for childcare is growing alongside them. But for early years providers like us, the opportunity isn’t simply about being present where homes are being built. It’s about opening in the right place, at the right time and in a way that’s built to last.

Drawing on her experience supporting nursery openings nationwide, Jessie Haggerty, our Franchise Acquisition Manager, explains why successful childcare provision relies on insight, not instinct – and how that benefits our franchisees, nursery teams and the families we serve.

Careful planning sits at the heart of our franchise model. We’re all about helping our network avoid one of the most common pitfalls in early years: assuming that housing growth alone guarantees sustainable demand.

Instead, it’s about understanding local demographics, getting the timing right and recognising early years education as essential community infrastructure.

Why timing matters in early years

In fast-growing areas, opening a nursery too early can be just as risky as opening one too late. Take Hertfordshire, for example. The county is planning for at least 100,000 new homes over the next decade, supporting an estimated population growth of 175,000¹.

On paper, that suggests a significant opportunity for new nursery settings. But in practice, if families haven’t fully settled, demand simply isn’t there yet.

For parents, a new nursery opening sounds reassuring. But for franchisors and operators like us, opening before there are enough children could put a setting under real financial pressure. Staffing, quality standards and safety requirements don’t change just because numbers are low.

At Monkey Puzzle, our new settings are aligned with population settlement, not just the completion of buildings. This ensures our settings are financially stable, properly staffed and designed to be part of the community long-term.

For our franchisees, this approach reduces risk and creates stronger foundations from day one – rather than struggling to survive.

Data over guesswork

Housing growth does increase demand for childcare, but new homes alone don’t automatically translate into sustainable occupancy. Who lives in those homes matters just as much as how many have been built.

Our decisions are guided by detailed local data including the projected population of children aged 0-4, the number of women aged 26-39 and the mix, capacity and pricing of nearby competitors.

This data-led approach helps ensure our settings are located where families will live and work – avoiding situations where settings open in the wrong place or at the wrong scale.

People’s eyes light up when they see new housing targets and developments popping up all over the place. But they’re not always the right place for a nursery setting. Hertfordshire shows that an incoming population and housing boom doesn’t mean you can build a nursery in any old village – it needs to work and the data needs to back you up!

Location matters as much as demand

Not every development can support full-time childcare. Larger developments connected to existing towns tend to have strong transport links and employment hubs, while more isolated housing schemes, without supporting infrastructure, may struggle to sustain provision – a challenge reflected nationally, with just 34% of councils reporting sufficient childcare for parents working full-time².

Integrating childcare alongside housing, transport and employment is essential. When done well, nurseries become resilient community anchors rather than fragile businesses trying to survive in isolation.

For our franchisees, this joined-up thinking ensures that our new settings are not just viable on opening day but positioned to thrive for years to come.

Supporting families – and building better businesses

Good childcare planning makes sense both socially and commercially. When nurseries open in the right place at the right time, demand is steadier and more predictable. Where provision doesn’t keep pace with housing, parents may be forced to reduce working hours or leave employment altogether – having a deeper effect on the local economy.

Everyone can see the benefits when nurseries are opened at the right time – parents can work with confidence, children excel in a stable setting and communities become closer and more settled as a result.

This translates into stronger occupancy, better reputation and a more resilient business model for our franchisees.

What this means for prospective franchisees

Housing growth across the UK is creating real opportunities for early years franchises – but only for operators who get their planning right. For anyone considering a childcare franchise, that means choosing a model that helps you:

• Pick the right location, using detailed local data rather than guesswork
• Open at the right time, when families have settled and are ready to use childcare
• Avoid the risks of opening too early, too late or in the wrong place
• Build a sustainable business, not just a nursery that looks good on launch day.

Franchise support can make all the difference. We have built this strategic approach into our franchise model. Using data on local demographics, housing growth and nearby childcare provision, we help franchisees choose sites and launch nurseries at the right time.

This reduces risk and provides a strong foundation for long-term success. The focus isn’t rapid expansion – we help our franchisees open nurseries that are financially stable, integrated into their communities and designed to deliver consistently brilliant early years education.

¹ Hertfordshire Growth Board, Housing and population growth, Dec 2024

² Coram, Coram Family & Childcare’s 23 annual Childcare Survey, 2024